Ten years following the UK stumbled into a hasty public vote that split the country and triggered chaos, a caution emerges from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Authorities and voters drifted into Brexit and the same could occur with a referendum on a unified Ireland, initiating convulsions for which no one is equipped.
That is the message from two leading commentators from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a possibly fraught and seismic public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can gain traction rapidly," O’Toole stated. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our archipelago remains very unstable."
Book Publication Intends to Stir Debate
The team have studied the governmental, economic and cultural reasons for any constitutional change in a book, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to stir debate on the topic with a roadshow of public talks that will take them to Westminster soon.
"What concerns everyone, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said the analyst.
"We must avoid a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose consequences have remained undefined because then you land with an extraordinarily divided society where those defeated are unable to accept losing and the victorious side are uncertain quite what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unification if it is indicated that a most voters would approve.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists claim that moment is approaching, and a non-profit called Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but both governments and pro-UK factions play down the prospect, resulting in ambiguity when or if there could be a referendum.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Partisan language supporting and opposing unification has masked the lack of informed dialogue, stated the journalist.
"Many are supportive or opposed the concept but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to realise it has largely not occurred. Much has gone on in academia but hardly any government figures or advocates are willing to participate with the basics. As an example, what sort of state would you want? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, no writer advocates unification or the existing arrangement. Both authors two articles that strive for impartiality in presenting the case for a united Ireland and the case against, gathering financial and social statistics, previous instances and structural examples.
Discussions range over flags and symbols, duties, health services, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to inform and encourage dialogue.
"There's huge interest in the subject but there has not yet occurred a discussion," commented the writer. "Dialogue suggests an acceptance of the concept that there may exist good arguments on both sides."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens report they prefer unification but reject increased taxation or implementing a new flag to reflect pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"The Irish government must work out what the offer from Irish nationalism is aside from just stating: 'We desire a united Ireland and we value you'," stated O’Toole.
Probability of Public Vote
McBride considers a national vote in his era is probable and that it may take place abruptly. "It is possible just a mad or a ill-advised or a feckless official who states: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have credible, legitimate points, he said. "One side will succeed in this matter and the other side will ultimately lose but each side has has valuable insights to gain from the opposing arguments."
Request for Wider Dialogue
Westminster needed to participate in the dialogue, urged the analyst. "This concerns your state. It is a British question equally as it is an Irish matter."
